Woof woof! GTN Newshound here…..yes, I’m back, but to tell you the truth, I’ve been so busy sleuthing this Dobbies thing, I’m seriously cream-crackered, so you may have to take what follows with a large pinch of salt (make that a sackful!!).
The call to duty came down the dog and bone (no, I’m not keen on it either, but if that’s what people want to call it, who am I to argue….grrrrr) last Saturday evening as Rule the World went first past the post at Aintree (at 33-1 wot! A good day for some, yours truly included, but not the boss, who had piled a pony behind the joint favourite. Many Clouds? You bet there were...But as I told him, a weak punt gets what it deserves in the Grand National). “Quick as you like, get down to the Dog and Duck, I’ve got a job for you.” [If it had been the Fox & Hounds, I wasn’t budging]
Anyway, after the boss had paid for the round he thought was going to be funded by his winnings, I felt a nudge in the ribs from his left Hush Puppy (I know, I know…so-oo degrading). He looked me straight in the eye (with his ‘good’ one, the one he used at the bookies…) and droned, in a tone I can only describe as ‘gambler’s gutteral’: “Well, I suppose we’d better move on…it’s the Dobbies Steeplechase next. We’ll nail it this time, won’t we Hound?”
That was the moment I knew it was going to be one helluva a week. My mission: check out the runners and riders – and pick a winner. I winced and whined in a whinging sort of way. “Dear God [dog spelt backwards, geddit?], it can’t be that difficult, can it?”
Boss, no amount of tail-wagging will stop these guys slamming the door on me as soon as I show up. “Sorry…we never comment on speculation”. Grrrr and double-grrrr.
So that’s how I came to spend the week pounding the pavements with my ear to the ground, nose in the air, sniffing out all I could about the names on the racecard. So….woof woof!...here goes:
Runner: Wyevale Garden Centres. Rider: new jockey Roger McLaughlan. Clearly starts as odds-on favourite, with many successful runs over jumps – but will the newcomer at the reins persuade the trainer it’s worth taking on at this critical juncture in the equity cycle, with its own sale perhaps just around the next bend?
Runner: The Current Management Team. Rider: experienced garden industry jock Andy King (right), CEO under Tesco since September 2013. An MBO by the people who know the business best should not be ruled out – if they can find the right partner. Freedom from corporate restraints could re-kindle enough latent entrepreneurialism to stay the course.
Runner: A New Partnership. Rider: former Dobbies CEO James Barnes. An investment banker by background, Barnes ran Dobbies from 1989 until 2013. He shaped the garden centre chain we now see, led an MBO in 1994, floated the company on the AIM in 1997 and negotiated the sale to Tesco in 2007. He has since acquired many business interests, the latest of which is Farm Park Ltd, which is involved in developing, investing in, and advising on the creation of niche destination retail leisure enterprises based around food and local provenance – the right nosebag flavour for the garden centre industry’s current major trends. Could that give him an appetite for a re-visit?
Runner: Another New Partnership. Rider: former Wyevale/The Garden Centre Group CE Nicholas Marshall. Those close to him say he retains a passionate belief in the future of garden retailing – and the recent interest he expressed in acquiring Homebase made reference to further enhacing the DIY chain’s gardening credentials. He was beaten to the post that time – but he might regard a fully-formed garden centre chain like Dobbies as a great second prize.
Runner: The Hillview Group. Rider: CEO Boyd Douglas-Davies and his investors have built, by acquisition, a chain of nine moderately-sized garden centres since 2011 and they are hell-bent on expansion – but probably not at any price. Dobbies, with its head office infrastructure a potential jump too far, might prove a tricky and expensive add-on for them and steer them away from what they’re good at – adaptable local retailing.
Runner: Blue Diamond. Rider: CEO Alan Roper. (left) Although frequently critical of ‘formula retailers’ like Dobbies, he will be attracted by some of the chain’s prime locations and will surely identify opportunities to add his own ‘points of difference’. If he believes he can emulate the success of Redfields or the re-launched Trentham and bring Dobbies back into consistent profit, he might try to persuade his board that a super-group of 50-plus garden centres – the UK’s second largest – is within sight of the post.
Runner: B&Q Rider: CEO Michael Loeve . An unlikely starter. Parent company Kingfisher will have enough on its plate fighting off the party below without a tiring and commercially distracting chase like this.
Runner: Bunnings. Rider: Richard Goyder, MD of Aussie institution Wesfarmers, who bought Homebase earlier this year. However, the proposed re-branding of Homebase under the Bunnings brand will be an expensive affair with a drag-on for investors for the next few years, so they may want to keep the blinkers on, with Wickes and B&Q in their sights.
Runner: John Lewis Partnership. Rider: either Andy Street, MD of John Lewis, or Rob Collins, MD of Waitrose. On the face of it, the customer profiles of both business would be a good fit for Dobbies and on a number of sites would bring them face to face with arch rivals Tesco. Would they be able to make it work any better than Tesco has done?
Runner: Next plc. Rider: Lord Wolfson of Aspley Guise. Under the Tory life peer’s leadership, Next has forged ahead with a series of Home & Garden stores, warmly received by customers by all accounts. The out-of-town locations of most Dobbies centres might give the baron ideas about how Next can further extend its reach. They could make a last-minute appearance on the racecard.
Runner: Haskins Group Rider: Warren Haskins. The Haskins group, currently has four high-turnover sites in the south and says it wants more. Chairman Warren Haskins, whose great grandfather Harry Haskins first started growing plants commercially in Poole in 1882, may look on a bid for Dobbies as the perfect growth accelerator. Having sold the Hobbycraft chain in 2015, his personal wealth is listed at £115m on the Sunday Times Rich List – but would he risk any of it on Dobbies?
And there we have it, my little Dobbie-watchers. Enough hounding for one week, so now I’m off to spend my winnings….yes, I put a sneaky 10p on Rule the World to win. Perhaps the butcher will let me have two for that much! See you on race day. Woof woof!
