Proposed changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) reliefs are set to create a ‘lose-lose’ scenario for the UK, according to the Horticultural Trades Association.

New data reveals these reforms, for the environmental horticulture sector alone, would ultimately cost the Exchequer £36 million in net tax revenues by 2030, directly contradicting the government's stated aim to boost public finances.

The HTA cautions that the proposed changes will not generate revenue as intended. Instead, they could lead to a reduction of £60 million in the UK's environmental horticulture sector, with broader economic losses amounting to £143 million due to decreased industry activity. Additionally, these changes may result in the loss of 1,300 sector jobs, which directly contradicts the government's goal of promoting growth and increasing tax revenue.

The environmental horticulture sector is a cornerstone of the UK’s green economy, underpinning the nation's green infrastructure – from nurseries providing trees for planting targets to businesses maintaining public spaces and private gardens. This is all now at risk according to the HTA’s latest data, which shows that reforms to inheritance tax risk widespread disruption to jobs, investment, and essential environmental infrastructure.

An economic impact analysis commissioned by the HTA from CBI Economics, the independent consultancy arm of the CBI, provides stark projections of the proposed changes' impact on HTA members:

• A net loss of £36 million in tax revenues for the Exchequer by 2030, once reduced growth and investment are factored in. This directly refutes the economic rationale for the reforms.
• 1,295 direct job losses (full-time equivalent) across HTA member businesses, rising to 2,529 jobs across the wider economy.
• £60 million in direct Gross Value Added (GVA) lost from HTA members, rising to £143 million in wider economic losses.

These findings reinforce a broader warning issued today by Family Business UK, supported by the HTA and 31 other trade associations, highlighting the severe consequences for SMEs and long-standing family firms nationwide.

HTA’s internal data further highlights the direct threat to horticultural businesses, with 69% of members expecting to be affected by changes to Business Property Relief (BPR) and 40% anticipating an impact from changes to Agricultural Property Relief (APR).

Crucially, among those expecting to be affected by APR/BPR changes, the survey reveals widespread plans to curtail activity:

• 55% said they would pause or cancel critical investments in future growth and green infrastructure.
• 27.5% indicated plans to downsize their business operations.
• 48% said they would reduce their workforce or pause recruitment.

These figures indicate a significant disruption to business confidence, employment, and future investment in a sector that underlies the UK’s environmental and economic ambitions.

Fran Barnes, Chief Executive of the HTA, said: "This research unequivocally shows that the government's proposed Inheritance Tax changes are a classic lose-lose. They will not only fail to raise the intended revenue but will actively cost the country vital jobs, investment, and growth. It’s deeply illogical. Our family-run horticultural firms are the very backbone of the green economy, delivering essential benefits for our economy, environment, communities, and public health and wellbeing. These proposals risk uprooting the sector at every level, leaving it with fewer resources to invest in the UK’s green infrastructure. Economically, socially, and environmentally, it simply doesn’t make sense for the country to be worse off and the Exchequer to receive less tax. The government must urgently rethink this misguided approach."

The HTA is urgently calling on the government to reconsider these proposals in light of the evidence and to recognise the critical role the horticultural sector plays not just in the economy, but in delivering environmental and social benefits to communities across the UK.