The economy is looking up and oil prices will stay low for up to three years, leading economist Roger Martin-Fagg told the GCA conference yesterday in a session that left delegates visibly cheered.

He said the recent collapse of oil prices represented a bonus of about £600 a year for the average UK family – and the cash would probably be spent. “If you were to get 10% of that, you would have a great year,” he said.

Roger reminded delegates of the close link between house prices and consumer confidence, which had been rising over the past 18 months. There had been a £25 billion increase in mortgage lending in 2014 but there was no chance of another house price bubble; the government wanted to restrict mortage payments to around 9% of household income.

 He was confident interest rates would not rise this year and probably not next and over a period of  three to seven years were likely to reach no more than 3%.

Price and wage inflation would remain low for the time being, he said, and retail margins had held up well, even during the economic crisis.

He believed it would not be in the UK’s best interests to leave the EU following a referendum. “The EU needs reform and you have to stay at the table to achieve it,” he said. “It would be a mistake to leave.”

His personal prediction for the General Election in May: a Conservative victory by five or 10 seats.