Who got it right at the start of 2013? Crystal-ball gazing is a notoriously high-risk activity and many hedge their bets rather than commit to a full-blooded prediction – so we thought we would re-visit the New Year predictions from the 2013 New Year Special issue of GTN Xtra to see how they panned out.
Alan Roper, CE of the Blue Diamond group, said that if the weather returned to a normal pattern, 2013 would be energised with customers keen to engage with their gardens. He was partly right. The weather, up to its old tricks, gave us a terrible March, creating fears that we were in for another dreadful year. But the summer eventually came good, sales picked up dramatically and the season extended well into the autumn.
Alan also predicted the industry would continue to consolidate in 2013, “with increasing intensity” – which was probably a safe bet then and will continue to be for 2014. He was right, too, about Tesco-backed Dobbies continuing with their new-build expansion. Few, though, could have predicted the shock departure in July of Dobbies chief executive James Barnes and his replacement by Notcutts CEO Andy King. Many now expect closer integration between Dobbies and its parent to further Tesco’s stated aim to bring the brand to more customers.
Amanda Sizer Barrett, director general of Gardenex and PetQuip, suggested that hard-pressed suppliers who got their fingers burnt in the nightmare 2012 season might focus more strongly on carefully scrutinised product portfolios, enhanced marketing techniques and new market targets. Export potential certainly moved up the agenda for many of them last year, typified by Gardman’s success in winning the Gardenex Exporter of the Year Award at July’s GIMA Awards.
Neil Gow, director of GIMA, advocated “the right attitude” in 2013 to meet pent-up demand. People were putting 2012’s failures behind them, he felt, but it would be a slow start for core gardening because the soil would take a long time to warm up. March proved him spot on – and demand improved steadily as the season progressed.
Neil also predicted suppliers who offered quality coupled with value for money – “I’m not saying cheap” – would be the winners. We saw countless new products at ‘value’ price points during the year, suggesting he was on the right tack.
For Bob Hewitt, chief executive of the Klondyke/Strikes garden centre group, 2012 proved, if proof were needed, the value of the garden centre catering offer to maintain footfall even in adverse weather. This was also a key point made by consultant and GCA inspector Roger Crookes. Sales figures we saw last year suggest that, for most garden centres, coffee shops and restaurants are not just ‘nice to have’ but absolute necessities. And the coffee had better be good if you want repeat business from discerning high spending customers.
Iain Wylie, then interim chief executive of the Garden Centre Association and now confirmed in the role, stuck his neck out with a prediction that the weather would be better in spring and everybody would sell more plants. Sadly, it did not come to pass, with devastating consequences for growers in particular.
But his other prediction, that retailers and suppliers would need to work closely together to ensure demand was met and the rewards (and problems) were shared, proved closer to the mark as the on-going rationalisation of the retail channel forced expanding groups to re-think their logistics and marketing tactics. “Working Together” is a theme that cropped up regularly through the year, with the HTA and the GCA once again operating from the same premises and the organisers of Glee keen to involve all elements of the trade in their proposals to rejuvenate the industry’s trade shop window.
The GCA’s chief standards inspector, Ian Boardman, said people should make their own sunshine when the real thing was in short supply. Many did, at a cost, by investing huge sums in all-weather sales areas. Businesses who focused on flexibility to take best advantage of whatever conditions we get would be the ones who would do best, he said. Can’t argue with that, Ian – we shall look forward to you telling us at the GCA conference later this month how many took your advice.
After the horrors of 2012, a relatively strong Christmas sales period left Nick Davies, MD of Solus Garden & Leisure, “quietly optimistic” for the new season. Again, it was pent-up demand for core gardening that offered a ray of hope. The year would be be all about having stock at the right time in the right place, he thought – but who had the confidence to call it? As the year drew to a close, Nick and Solus parted company and he announced a new venture backed by Westland. GTN Xtra will bring you further news as it happens…
Finally, GCA standards inspector Roger Crookes believed that the trends and themes that made Christmas 2012 so successful for many were worth trying across Spring and Summer product categories. He predicted garden centres would need to look after female consumers, families and novice gardeners even better than before. We’d say that need is probably still there. For many, the annual report will say: “Can do better.”
