The garden industry will benefit from the current ‘Goldilocks scenario’ of low inflation, rising wages, high spending power and more older people gardening, BBC Radio’s business and economics presenter Simon Jacks told HTA conference delegates.

But, he warned, rising house prices represented a dark cloud on the horizon, with fewer people able to afford to buy their own homes and more renters. “In 20 to 30 years time, the problem you will face is that people who don’t own homes, don’t have gardens,” he said. 

His presentation was a mixed bag of good news and bad. The “massive issue” of the EU referendum promised at least 18 months of uncertainty, he said, but most businesses he had spoken to would prefer Britain to stay in, but in a reformed Europe. While leaving the EU would be an “elegant solution” to the current refugee crisis, the country would lose out on trade deals and nullified trade agreements.

The rising age of first-time buyers, possibly to their 40s, in the housing market was of particular relevance to the garden industry, and the ratio of house prices to earnings would remain elevated, Jack predicted.