Garden centres delivered steady sales growth in October 2025, with overall sales up +7% on October 2024 and +13% on 2023, according to the Horticultural Trades Association’s latest Market Update. While this indicates continued resilience across the sector, higher price inflation meant that sales volumes rose more modestly, up +3% year-on-year.
Gardening sales grew +5% in value but remained flat in volume terms. Live plant sales were more restrained than in the previous year, although seeds and bulbs showed notable strength as gardeners prepared for the upcoming season. Non-gardening categories again performed strongly, rising +10% on 2024, supported by solid catering growth of +10% year-on-year.
October was the third-dullest on record, with cloudier conditions across the UK. While rainfall was close to seasonal averages and supported a slight recovery in reservoir levels, groundwater continued its typical seasonal decline. The Met Office’s forecast for November to January suggests drier-than-average conditions, meaning water resources may take longer to stabilise, and a dry winter increases the risks of restrictions coming into effect in Spring 2026. The HTA continues to represent the sector on the Environment Agency’s National Drought Group.
Consumer confidence remained steady but low, rising by just 2 points to –17, where it has hovered around that level of -20 to -17 for six months. CPIH inflation held at 4.1%, and unemployment rose to 5.0%, the highest since the pandemic.
Fran Barnes, HTA Chief Executive, said:
“Garden centres have once again shown impressive resilience in what continues to be a challenging economic environment. A near 10% uplift in October sales compared to last year demonstrates the strong appeal of garden centres as places people want to visit, not just to shop, but to spend time with family and friends and receive valuable advice for their gardens.
“Beneath that headline, though, the pressures on both consumers and businesses are still very real. Volumes remain subdued once catering is excluded, with customers being more selective in what they buy. Sales for categories such as seeds, bulbs, and seasonal products are encouraging; however, the overall picture suggests that many households are feeling the impact of rising costs.
“This is echoed in our Q3 Business Barometer, which provides an important additional view of business confidence. While 77% of HTA members met or exceeded their sales budgets last quarter, only 62% achieved their planned profit levels. Almost eight in ten members who fell short on profit are now planning to slow or cut investment, the highest level we’ve seen this year, highlighting how squeezed margins have become due to rising national insurance, minimum wage increases and wider operating costs, and this is something we are calling on the government to address in the Autumn Budget announcement in a couple of weeks.
“Long-term confidence has also dipped, falling from 5.1 to 4.5 out of 7 in the last quarter. Landscapers and garden designers in our APL membership are reporting their lowest short-term outlooks since we began tracking this in 2024, despite still having reasonable pipelines of work. This reflects broader concerns about tax increases, employment law changes and the likelihood of more cautious consumer spending in the months ahead.
“Despite all of this, year-to-date sales are still ahead of both 2024 and 2023, which puts the sector in a relatively strong position heading into the crucial Christmas trading period. However, it is important to note that many garden centres now require sales growth of 10–15% just to maintain their previous year’s profit margins. With ongoing seasonal and economic pressures and higher operating costs, Government support and stability will be critical to ensure our sector can continue to invest, grow and play its central role in the UK’s green economy.”
HTA members can access further insights in this month’s Market Update on our website, as well as view the quarterly Business Barometers.
