The latest Horticultural Trades Association Market Update combines the regular monthly analysis of December trading along with a review of garden centre performance across the whole of 2025, showing that the sector finished the year in a stronger position than the previous two years, despite ongoing cost pressures and increasingly value-conscious consumers.
Fran Barnes, Chief Executive of the HTA, said: “In 2025, garden centres finished the year with total sales value 9% ahead of 2024 and 10% up on 2023, with a strong lead built up across the fantastic weather we experienced last Spring that gradually narrowed as the year progressed.
“Sales growth of 9% was well above the current inflation rate of 3.5% and multiple heatwaves through the summer and a warm autumn helped sustain gardening demand later into the year, but it is important to note that many garden centres now require sales increases of between 10 and 15% simply to maintain last year’s profit margins, due to rising operating costs such as increases to the minimum wage and national insurance contributions.
“Turning to December, overall garden centre sales rose by two per cent by value compared with December 2024, although this growth was more subdued than in recent months and remained below the rate of inflation. Sales volumes were higher than sales values, suggesting customers were prioritising smaller-ticket items and seeking bargains, while total transactions increased by 3%, indicating higher footfall than in previous Decembers.
“The trading calendar also had a clear impact, as November benefited from an extra weekend of trade, which came at the expense of December only containing three weekends before Christmas.
“This impact also showed in the direct Christmas sales, which were weaker in December itself, falling 5% compared with 2024 and 3% compared with 2023. In November, Christmas sales were up 9%, likely influenced by the five weekends. Despite this shift, Christmas sales for the whole year were still up 3% on 2024, with real Christmas tree sales increasing by 2%. Christmas products accounted for 24% of December’s overall sales, exceeding the combined value of garden and gardening categories, underlining how product diversification is helping garden centres generate sales in the darker winter months and reinforcing their role as family destinations in the run-up to Christmas.
“Gardening sales were down 1% in December compared with the previous year, although volumes were flat and sales were still up 1% compared with December 2023. Indoor plant sales were notably weaker, down 13% year on year, but this was offset in part by strong growth in hardy plants, up 18%, and bulb sales, up 25%. These categories point to encouraging levels of gardening demand as we head towards spring 2026, even though gardening products accounted for just 13% of total December sales.
“Non-gardening categories remained strong as café and restaurant sales rose by 7% compared with December 2024, and consumer confidence improved slightly in December, rising by 2 points to -17 overall, as households were less affected by the Autumn Budget than they may have anticipated. Confidence has remained broadly flat for much of 2025, with personal financial outlooks improving over the year while views in the broader economy have weakened, suggesting that consumers feel more secure individually but remain cautious about the wider economic environment.
“Looking ahead, garden centres enter 2026 with a stronger sales base than in recent years, but converting demand into sustainable profitability remains the key challenge. Continued cost pressures, changing weather patterns, and value-focused consumer behaviour will all shape the year ahead, and the HTA will continue to work with members and government to ensure the sector is supported through this period of transition.”
HTA members can view the full December Market Update and the 2025 year-in-review report on the HTA website.
