Delegates who attended the Garden Centre Association’s 2015 conference in January may recall a prediction from leading economist Roger Martin-Fagg about the result of the General Election.
His personal view, he said at the conclusion of a speech on prospects for the economy, was that the Conservatives would win with a majority of five to 10- seats.
As this issue of GTN Xtra is put to bed, it turns out he was pretty much spot on!
In the light of this canny accuracy, perhaps we should remind ourselves of his other predictions, which included:
*Oil prices will stay low for up to three years. He said last winter’s collapse of oil prices represented a bonus of about £600 a year for the average UK family – and the cash would probably be spent. “If you were to get 10% of that, you would have a great year,” he said. (Editor’s comment: high-ticket garden furniture sales in many garden centres this season may well back up that idea).
*Despite a £25 billion increase in mortgage lending in 2014, there was no chance of another house price bubble, because the government wanted to restrict mortage payments to around 9% of household income.
*Interest rates would not rise this year and probably not next and over a period of three to seven years were likely to reach no more than 3%.
*Price and wage inflation would remain low for the time being.
He also believed it would not be in the UK’s best interests to leave the EU following the referendum that David Cameron has promised. “The EU needs reform and you have to stay at the table to achieve it,” he said. “It would be a mistake to leave.”
Prime Minister David Cameron was on the campaign trail at Squires Garden Centre in Twickenham just days before his General Election victory.
And in other General Election news, Tapps Garden Centre near Baldock was used as a polling station on Thursday.
