The economy is looking up and oil prices will stay low for up to three years, leading economist Roger Martin-Fagg told the GCA conference this week in a session that left delegates visibly cheered.

He said the recent collapse of oil prices represented a bonus of about £600 a year for the average UK family – and the cash would probably be spent. “If you were to get 10% of that, you would have a great year,” he said.

Roger reminded GCA delegates of the close link between house prices and consumer confidence, which had been rising over the past 18 months. There had been a £25 billion increase in mortgage lending in 2014 but there was no chance of another house price bubble; the government wanted to restrict mortgage payments to around 9% of household income.

• He was confident interest rates would not rise this year and probably not next and over a period of three to seven years were likely to reach no more than 3%.

• Price and wage inflation would remain low for the time being, he said, and retail margins had held up well, even during the economic crisis.

• He believed it would not be in the UK’s best interests to leave the EU following a referendum. “The EU needs reform and you have to stay at the table to achieve it,” he said. “It would be a mistake to leave.”

• Roger also gave a personal prediction for the General Election in May: a Conservative victory by five or 10 seats.